Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 34.776181 37.476887 40.428538 43.921267 47.978151 52.588825 58.295183
2025-09-14 30.760260 34.282002 38.376186 43.577866 50.151450 58.395759 69.902093
2025-09-21 28.084147 31.910597 36.523661 42.647303 50.823219 61.804821 78.591921
2025-09-28 26.030985 29.993339 34.899100 41.630636 51.014305 64.350585 86.439396
2025-10-05 25.378609 29.703519 35.222857 43.095989 54.661609 72.328053 104.997368
2025-10-12 24.624355 29.188847 35.160569 43.962718 57.501029 79.605849 125.273674
2025-10-19 23.833187 28.547181 34.843201 44.385694 59.667768 86.202424 147.476119
2025-10-26 23.006707 27.790891 34.289406 44.370382 61.083983 91.748317 170.665486
2025-11-02 22.050965 26.795714 33.318491 43.608435 61.111000 94.608351 188.894804
2025-11-09 21.132124 25.800758 32.280550 42.641942 60.640095 96.336718 205.255539
2025-11-16 20.367475 24.982429 31.448220 41.927201 60.519725 98.785249 226.443899
2025-11-23 19.683817 24.245896 30.692898 41.272263 60.420716 101.263925 250.704278
2025-11-30 19.426884 24.119871 30.860803 42.189757 63.512222 112.434722 333.604798
2025-12-07 18.878772 23.550563 30.327082 41.882915 64.169936 117.802269 402.159191
2025-12-14 18.238281 22.819269 29.505208 41.012673 63.559021 119.562985 453.667874
2025-12-21 17.622739 22.101622 28.671002 40.062789 62.671673 120.336579 503.349849
2025-12-28 17.576953 22.216621 29.133776 41.431777 66.933196 138.403318 903.509681
2026-01-04 17.406826 22.136962 29.280852 42.240410 70.111632 155.047261 1908.542010
2026-01-11 17.159885 21.930137 29.209952 42.634735 72.399874 170.099233 6560.160677
2026-01-18 16.846327 21.609592 28.936599 42.620463 73.695856 182.159410 NaN
2026-01-25 16.416297 21.096805 28.324944 41.909976 73.138467 185.715066 NaN
2026-02-01 15.971260 20.548712 27.635295 41.007840 71.987369 186.039928 NaN
2026-02-08 15.591116 20.090712 27.079955 40.340028 71.382749 189.024643 NaN